Carol Jagger is the AXA Professor of Epidemiology of Ageing at Newcastle University and Deputy Director of the Newcastle University Institute for Ageing (http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ageing/ ). Her research program spans demography and epidemiology with a focus on mental and physical functioning in ageing. She is the leading UK researcher on healthy life expectancy, has advised the Office for National Statistics and the Scottish Public Health Observatory on Healthy Life Expectancy, and has provided evidence to various government committees, including a review of trends in life and healthy life expectancy for the Government Office for Science Foresight Ageing project. Carol has been involved in the design or analysis of most major UK cohort studies of ageing including the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies and the Newcastle 85+ Study. Her current studies include: MODEM: comprehensive modelling of costs and outcomes of interventions with dementia (ESRC funded); Linking spirituality and religiosity to health, life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy: A global comparative study of older persons (funded by John Templeton Foundation); and PROMISS: PRevention Of Malnutrition In Senior Subjects in the EU (Horizon 2020 funded). Carol is a Chartered Scientist, a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society and the Gerontological Society of America and an Honorary Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.
One of the most important questions with population ageing is whether the extra years of life we are enjoying, around two years increase in life expectancy every decade, are healthy ones, and how trends will play out in the future. This question is important not only for the provision of health and social care but also for pension policy. In this lecture I will first briefly review trends in healthy life expectancy in Europe and wider. I will then focus on a unique UK study which allows the comparison of a range of health expectancies, including years spent in different care states, across two generations of older adults 20 years apart. Finally I will discuss the factors that may be driving past trends in healthy life expectancy and how these might play out in the future, reporting new forecasts of health expectancies from a novel dynamic microsimulation model PACSim.